Commodore Kazi Emdadul Haq, BN (retd): India’s role in the global energy trade has come under sharp scrutiny amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. By continuing to buy discounted Russian oil despite international sanctions spearheaded by the USA, New Delhi is being accused of indirectly sustaining Vladimir Putin’s military campaign. Critics argue that India’s economic gains—refining and reselling this crude to Western markets—amount to opportunism that undercuts the very sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s Ukraine attack. This has sparked a wider debate over the ethics of profit during conflict and the long-term diplomatic consequences for India on the world stage.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party and supporters celebrated Donald Trump’s election victory with unusual enthusiasm, banking on their much-publicized personal rapport to secure favorable ties. Yet within months, this optimism crumbled into a sobering reality. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s rushed December 2024 visit—an obvious bid to ingratiate India with the incoming administration—failed to produce meaningful assurances. Despite Modi’s attempts to position India as a key U.S. ally, his refusal to fully align with Washington’s demands on Russia or defense deals left the partnership stagnant.
The much-hyped visits by U.S. officials like VP Vance and NSA Tulsi Gabbard proved superficial, masking the lack of substantive progress. When Modi himself visited Washington in February 2025, the encounter was starkly transactional. Gone were the grand gestures of Trump’s first term; instead, the U.S. president treated India not as a privileged partner, but just another nation to be squeezed for concessions—a stark lesson in the limits of personality-driven diplomacy. Purportedly, Trump pressed India to reduce Russian oil imports and abandon French Rafales for American F-35s. New Delhi’s refusal exposed the hollowness of its “special relationship” narrative.
Lo and behold, the Rafale deal became a total disaster for Modi. The reported downing of two or three Indian Rafale jets by Pakistani fighters during the brief Indo-Pak conflict (7-11 May 2025) marked a major humiliation for the Indian Air Force. Pakistan allegedly used Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles from J-10C fighters, exposing vulnerabilities in India’s much-touted Rafale fleet.
Adding to India’s disappointment, the U.S. did not support India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan—its fight against terrorism. This was widely criticized on Indian social media, accusing the U.S. of abandoning a key partner. Modi expected Trump to back India’s anti-terror efforts as he did during his first term. However, in Trump’s second term, his focus shifted from security to economic competition, leaving India’s hopes unmet.
Also worth noting is that President Trump’s recent economic decisions have dealt significant setbacks to India. Reports indicate he urged Apple CEO Tim Cook to move manufacturing operations out of India, undermining New Delhi’s “Make in India” initiative. Separately, World Liberty Financial—a Trump-affiliated crypto venture—reportedly partnered with Pakistan to establish it as South Asia’s cryptocurrency hub, bypassing India entirely.
The cumulative impact rattled India’s economy. According to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Indian stock markets plummeted to record lows following these developments, reflecting a sharp decline in investor confidence amid deteriorating U.S.-India economic ties.
Trump’s policies targeting redundancies in the U.S. led to mass job losses among Indian-origin professionals and the brutal deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants, displaying a stark disregard for humanitarian concerns—prompting Modi to finally grasp the true nature of Trump’s ruthlessness.
Modi appears less like a strategic partner and more like an outmaneuvered student at Trump’s unsparing school of diplomacy. It’s reminiscent of the stark reminder of famous cliché: “To be America’s enemy is dangerous, but to be America’s friend is fatal” is a quote attributed to Henry Kissinger. We can foresee Modi’s becoming a regional leader have been shattered.
It is needless to mention that Chinese aircraft J-10 and PL-15 missiles have become a subject of discussion among strategists. The performance of a leading Chinese fighter jet against a Western rival is being closely watched in Washington for insights into how Beijing might fare in any showdown over Taiwan or the wider Indo-Pacific. To counter Pakistan-China’s J-10, in May India’s Ministry of Defense green-lighted a blueprint for developing its most sophisticated stealth fighter jet, known as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). On the other hand, Pakistan is also expecting to acquire fifth generation multirole fighters, J-31 (Shenyang FC-31) from China. Modi finds himself trapped in a challenging diplomatic balancing act, unable to effectively manage relations with either President Xi or Trump.
Together, these developments signal the start of a high-tech arms race, pushing the region toward deeper polarization and strategic instability.
Also, as a regional power, India’s foreign policy faces sharp criticism as the most vocal strategists highlight its glaring flaws. While Modi champions ‘people-to-people connectivity,’ New Delhi’s actions reveal a duplicitous approach—bulldozing regional ties through calculated cunning rather than cooperation. Instead of fostering goodwill, India props up authoritarian regimes to covertly serve its hidden agendas, exposing a dangerous disconnect between rhetoric and reality.
India’s inability to foster win-win cooperation with neighbors has left regional forums like SAARC and BIMSTEC ineffective. By stalling progress and showing minimal interest, New Delhi has strained ties with every bordering nation—branding them as ‘hostile,’ a unique diplomatic failure unmatched globally. This self-defeating approach exposes deep flaws in India’s foreign policy.
India’s economy, once strong enough to challenge China, is now falling behind due to skewed foreign policy choices. Trying to maintain friendships with both the U.S. and Russia seemed strategic at first, but Modi’s approach has left India vulnerable and raised questions about his ability to navigate complex global power dynamics. His close ties with Trump failed to deliver the expected benefits. By opting for cheap Russian oil, Modi secured short-term gains but suffered long-term setbacks. Despite his attempts to align with Trump’s diplomatic playbook, Modi fundamentally misjudged Trump’s unpredictable strategies—exposing his own failure to manage this high-stakes relationship.