Kazi Emdadul Haq: Among the many geopolitical storms on the horizon, BRICS now stands as perhaps Trump’s most formidable challenge. In response, he has imposed whopping 50% tariff on Brazil and India; and 10% for other BRICS member countries—a move reflecting his dual concerns. On one hand, he fears the erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance; on the other, he publicly downplays BRICS as a non-threat, likely to reassure nervous Western allies. The question now is: what future does BRICS hold, and how might it reshape the balance of power?
Yevgeny Primakov, the former Russian foreign minister and prime minister in the late 1990s is to be credited for visualizing the concept of a strategic trilateral grouping of Russia, India, and China (RIC) against US monopoly. Possibly Primakov envisioned a multipolar world that would balance U.S. dominance. Later it transformed into today’s BRICS.
Founded in Russia in 2009, BRICS has evolved into a leading voice of Global South, now comprising 11 member nations and 10 partner countries. Together, they represent around 56% of the world’s population and 44% of the global economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. BRICS — an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — expanded significantly after its 17th summit, held in Brazil in May 2025. Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined as full members, while Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan became partner nations. The bloc’s rapid growth is undeniable. In contrast, Trump and Western outlets such as Bloomberg have sought to undermine BRICS’ momentum framing its success as a threat to degenerate US dollar. However, every sovereign nation has the right to adopt whatever currency best serves its economic interests, free from imperial coercion.
Notably, BRICS currently comprises emerging economies, with no advanced industrialized nations among its members. This composition positions the bloc as a potential counterbalance to Western economic dominance, particularly challenging the US-led global financial order. Of BRICS’ various initiatives, its development of alternative payment systems to bypass the US dollar has emerged as Washington’s primary concern – representing both a symbolic and substantive challenge to dollar hegemony.
The 17th BRICS Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, “The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor”. His statement sent a strong message that drew significant attention in the West. During the summit, it was announced that India will host the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in 2026, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlining plans to redefine the grouping’s direction.
Modi’s announcement created raised eyebrows among BRICS members, as such, the biggest challenge BRICS may face within. Modi unveiled a strategic vision for India’s presidency and desire to redefining BRICS as: “Building Resilience and Innovation for Cooperation and Sustainability” emphasizing “humanity first” like global south empowerment, climate justice, technology & innovation. India’s desire from BRICS is something quite different from other two influential members; China and Russia may not agree with India’s proposal.
China’s vision appears to expand BRICS among BRI nations and yuan as payment system alternate to US dollar which India may not agree. Among other desire, Russia wants to use BRICS countries’ support against Western sanction, trade of energy & defence technology within BRICS nations, non-dollar payment system. Russia’s vision appears to be political and security oriented.
BRICS, as a platform for the Global South, is increasingly perceived as an alternative to Western-led alliances. This is reflected in the contrasting positions within the group—China and Russia openly seek to challenge Western dominance, while India aims to ensure BRICS is not viewed as taking an anti-West stance. Each of these three influential members appears to have their own distinct strategic interests to pursue within the bloc.
Despite decades of past hostilities, China and Russia have drawn closer in recent years, describing their ties as a “limitless friendship.” However, the third point of this strategic triangle—India—remains less cooperative. In South Asia’s complex regional and geopolitical landscape, India shows little willingness to ease its rivalry with China. This persistent tension, particularly in the Bay of Bengal region, appears to be reinforced by India’s skewed foreign policy. Even though India participates constructively in BRICS, its ambition to play a dominant role could ultimately undermine the bloc’s cohesion and success.
China has always been vocal in supporting the idea of triangular framework for peace and cooperation in South Asian region involving China, India, and Pakistan. BRICS without China is unthinkable, likewise, a Global South alliance without Pakistan would be a strategic planning gap. Excluding Pakistan from any regional reconciliation effort risks undermining India’s ability to leverage BRICS effectively—particularly as the bloc approaches its 18th summit.
The path forward will likely be shaped by broader regional dynamics, where historic rivalries, border disputes, and strategic competition intersect with economic collaboration. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on 31 August—where RIC sit alongside Pakistan—could provide an important diplomatic stage for progress. If constructive engagement emerges there, it may set the tone for a more unified BRICS agenda in 2026.
Compared to China and Russia, India’s foreign policy often leans more toward alignment with Western powers. This makes it unlikely that New Delhi would seek to position BRICS explicitly as an anti-Western bloc. However, if BRICS advances its goal of establishing an alternative payment system to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, the United States will inevitably perceive the group as a strategic threat—regardless of the individual motives of its members.
In such a scenario, Washington’s political and media machinery would likely frame BRICS as an adversarial alliance. Figures like Donald Trump, known for their aggressive trade and foreign policy stances, could be expected to take every possible measure to undermine or discredit the bloc’s influence on the global stage.
The 17th BRICS Summit was held under the theme “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance.” Out of 126 commitments, the Key Outcomes from the Rio de Janeiro meeting included: Global South Cooperation and Multilateralism, Climate Action and Green Finance, Economic Sovereignty and Financial Integration, and Opposition to Trade Protectionism and Support for Global Security.
These commitments run counter to many Western economic and strategic interests. As a result, India’s push to position BRICS in a more Western-friendly light will face significant challenges. For the 2026 summit, New Delhi will need to navigate its diplomatic strategy with extreme care to secure consensus on rebranding efforts without alienating key partners such as China and Russia, whose geopolitical visions diverge from the West.